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Sociological Methods & Research
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Graphing Age Trajectories

Vector Graphs, Synthetic and Virtual Cohort Projections, and Virtual Cohort Projections, and Cross-Sectional Profiles of Depression

John Mirowsky

The University of Texas at Austin, mirowsky{at}prc.utexas.edu

Jinyoung Kim

University of Colorado at Denver and Health Sciences Center

Surveys often sample adults across a broad range of ages, measuring the same outcomes in several interviews spaced during a period of years and comparing the changes observed across segments of the adult life course. Put in sequence, those change vectors provide a composite image of the outcome's life course trajectory. To illustrate, the authors estimate depression vectors in a sample of U.S. adults ages 18 and older at baseline in 1995, with follow-up interviews in 1998 and 2001. They show the vector equations and their graphs and also their synthetic-cohort projection. The authors introduce the trend-function and virtual-cohort projection, showing how they provide tests of ``convergence'' and other hypotheses about trajectories and trends. Results show depression dropping and then rising across adulthood more steeply than suggested by cross-sectional differences among age groups. They also indicate a rise and fall in age-specific levels of depression across cohorts.

Key Words: depression • life course • latentgrowthmodels • age-period-cohort

Sociological Methods & Research, Vol. 35, No. 4, 497-541 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0049124106296015
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