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Sociological Methods & Research
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A Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age–Period–Cohort Models

Christopher Winship

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, cwinship{at}wjh.harvard.edu

David J. Harding

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

This article offers a new approach to the identification of age–period–cohort (APC) models that builds on Pearl's work on nonparametric causal models, in particular his front-door criterion for the identification of causal effects. The goal is to specify the mechanisms through which the age, period, and cohort variables affect the outcome and in doing so identify the model. This approach allows for a broader set of identification strategies than has typically been considered in the literature and, in many circumstances, goodness of fit tests are possible. The authors illustrate the utility of the approach by developing an APC model for political alienation.

Key Words: APC models • mechanisms • cohorts • front-door criterion • identification strategies

Sociological Methods & Research, Vol. 36, No. 3, 362-401 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/0049124107310635


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W. J. Fu
A Smoothing Cohort Model in Age-Period-Cohort Analysis With Applications to Homicide Arrest Rates and Lung Cancer Mortality Rates
Sociological Methods Research, February 1, 2008; 36(3): 327 - 361.
[Abstract] [PDF]